LAST WEEK’S MAIL

January 5th, 2010

Last week I had the most incredible offer, one of the rare ones that I actually looked at. I do not bother to look at most as I already know they are doomed at best and scams at worst.

Check it out if you like but before you even contemplate joining read on here. The “opportunity” is mymoneyfish.com and I have no association with them in any way and I would advise you to not even think of joining it. It will fail and I would classify it as a scam, not a business, for the following reasons:

They claim “Guaranteed to work for everyone”, right near the top of the home page. This is a blatant lie, it will fail for the vast bulk who join and line the owners pockets handsomely.

Now for some proof:

They have a 10 wide forced matrix that fills to 4 levels below so each person could, in theory, have 11,110 members in their downline. At that point the top member receives $22220 per month. Level two receive $2220, level three get $220 and level four are receiving $20 per month. Of course the bottom level who have not yet recruited are receiving $0. I am sure the promoters will hastily point out that as soon as the bottom level recruits all the other levels will experience an increase in income.

What they will not point out to you is that at this time 99% of the members are earning $20 or less per month while 0.01% are receiving the promised income of $22220 per month. What they will also not tell you is that even if the bottom level recruit these percentages will not change.

The matrix cannot fill below 10 levels as by then the bottom level is 1 billion and there are not enough people in the world to enable them to full their next level. A further 10 billion would be required and of course that is more than the world’s total population. With this matrix there are still 90% of the members earning $0 and a further 9% earning only $20 per month.

How is this working for everyone? Can anyone explain it to me? I cannot see it!

The other interesting thing that they will not be telling you is that for the first filled matrix ie the top person has 4 levels below them the members are paying in total $99,905.95 while the business is distributing $86,420 so even at this initial level the promoters are collecting over $13,000 per month (13.15%). If they could fill the matrix to the 10 levels they would be collecting over 19% per month which would equate to more than 2 billion dollars per month.

Now you can see the motivation for the false claims they are making.

One final comment!

“As seen on Google, MSN, Yahoo, AOL” Should we really be impressed that this “opportunity” has been seen on search engines and directories? Adds zero to the credibility rating in my world.

Take care out there

Another Update on the Trump Network

January 2nd, 2010

Thank you Lance for your latest comments and here is my reply.
“You can become diamond with 500 people in your downline spending the minimum monthly order. (500 people X 100 volume=50,000) Your math is not close.”
What math are you referring to that is not close? Certainly my calculations in relation to the structure of the matrix are correct. It seems it is possible to become a Diamond Director earlier than I had understood. Now I have the opportunity to use your figures to do the math I gain absolutely no comfort.

If a person can become a Diamond Distributor with 500 people in the dowline that means Diamond Distributors could be 0.2% of the total membership. In my last update I suggested that there would never be more than 0.5% Diamond Distributors and you seem to be providing figures that support this claim. Where am I wrong?

If a Diamond Distributor has 500 in the downline and it has filled uniformly across the 6 wide matrix then there will be a total of 458 in the bottom two levels with 242 in the botttom level earning no money and 216 in the level above and I am sure they too will be showing little income and may still be in a loss situation. Remember they will average a little over 1 recruit per person or there will be about 40 who have filled their next level and over 200 still making no money. That means over 91% of the people who have joined are losing or, at best, making peanuts

If you refer to my update posting I had calculated that, if half the world population joined (they will not), no more than 12 million people could be diamond distributors and that represents 0.2% of members. Using the above figures of 500 in the downline creating a Diamond Distributor then there can be no more than 6 million distributors and so over 99% of the members will never reach Diamond Distributor status.

“You could actually become diamond with less people in your downline if people order more than the minimum monthly order. Diamond level is more dependent on order volume than people.”

Even if the number is 250 because all of them order more than the monthly minimum then the Diamond Distributors represent only 0.4% of the membership. Of course it would seem that if these people are buying more than the minimum then they must be retailing the product to others who, presumably, do not want to become distributors. If that becomes widespread then there are even less new recruits available to help the exisiting members to elevate their status.

“But here is why it is attractive, it provides everyday people the opportunity to make a potentially very good income with a minimal investment, and the ability to work on your own time.”

The attraction is based on dreams and promises not reality. Every MLM has the same problem, well over 90% of the people who join earn little or no income. The sort of figures I calculate and show here are never disclosed by MLM companies and nobody has yet been able to show how even as many as half the total membership of any MLM can earn a reasonable income.

The Trump network uses a 6 wide matrix and if it is filled to 6 levels deep there are over 97% of the members in levels 5 and 6. Level 6 will not be earning from the matrix. Will anyone publish here what the level 5 members will be earning? I know it will be little but I do not know how much.

“What lacks in most mlm businesses is training. Most people do not understand marketing and are not taught how to market their business, which in turn leads to losing money, and the bad reputation.”

I have no doubt training is sorely lacking in MLM but that is not the real problem. The structure is doomed to fail for most who join and no amount of marketing will correct that problem. The good marketers will probably earn an income but the majority of the members regardless of marketing skills will earn little or nothing. The structure makes that a certainty not a possibility.

“What is different with Trump is the name behind it. The Trump name puts a legitimacy behind the business, that sells itself to a certain point.”

I agree there is a tendency for people to follow the Trump name and that is what makes the Trump Network so much of a concern for me. You say the Trump name puts a legitimacy behind the business does that mean it has no legitimacy in its own right? The Trump name does not in any way alter the reality of the structure. People follow because of the name not because they have been given all the information they need to be able to make a reasoned decision.

“Also the internet provides a great avenue to market the business anywhere, not just to friends and family, which is also a very attractive selling point.”

Yes MLM loves the internet, there is the opportunity to recruit from world wide and now there is no need to face family and friends who are disillusioned. It is some faceless person in another state or another country who never has to be seen face to face.

The internet is also the home to the vast bulk of the scammers in the world today. I get hundreds in my email every week. It is a two edged sword!

“I think the shelf life could last 5 years in the US, and with the plans to go international, The Trump Network could grow rather nicely for 10-15 years.”

Do I read and understand this correctly? You believe this “wonderful business opportunity” could possibly survive 15 years if it goes international but only 5 years without that step? I thought the Trump Network had a major breakthrough in health care. Does this mean the world will have no health problems in 15 years time? Does it mean that if I join I will have a business for maybe 15 years?

What you seem to be telling us is the same old MLM story. Get in now while it lasts then move on to the next one! Fine if you are one of the top 2% who make money and you sleep well at night knowing you make money because hundreds of others lost money “following the dream” which you sold them.

Ken

Update on the Trump Network Post

October 9th, 2009

Thank you Marissa for filling in some blanks for me on the Trump Network and please accept my appologies for the delay. It was caused by pressure of other things not a lack of interest.

I would like to make a few comments to you in reply.

“How could a network marketing company even be legal if what you were saying was true?”

How do you know any network marketing company is legal including the Trump Network? Legality is decided by courts not promoters (you as a member are also a promoter). Until a business is challenged in the courts there is no guarantee that it is legal, only opinions.

If you doubt this do some research on Bernie Madoff. His illegal scheme operated at least 15 years and possibly as many as 30 years before being finally exposed. He was, until caught, a highly respected member of the business community. Look up 12Dailypro and see how big it grew before being closed as a Ponzi. Why not even look at the original Ponzi programme?

Look further and you will find MLM icons being challenged for legality outside the USA and some even legally prevented from operating. It seems for some reason that law enforcement agencies in the USA are reluctant to challenge the MLM companies. Those being challenged, or already challenged, include Amway, Usana, YTB and Prepaid Legal to name just a few. Nothing is legal until the courts say so no matter how long it has operated or who is operating it.

“And furthermore, how could someone like Donald Trump put his name on it?”

Of course that is a question you would have to ask Donald Trump but here is a question I would ask you. Did your due diligence include any reseach on Donald Trump? Mine did and it was interesting and enlightening.

“If you do your homework, you’ll realize that the Trump Network has the most lucrative payplan in the industry, paying out in the neighborhood of 55% to the field.”

Personally I would not be inspired by the prospect of investing my money in a business that keeps 45% of it before paying out the bulk to the Diamond Distributors.

To give a small example of a matrix 6 wide and 6 deep and each member paying $600 per year:

Total membership is 9331 so total income is $5,598,600 that means there is $3,079,230 available to distribute.

Assume the top level gets $6000 per year pay out and each lower level gets 10% less than those above them the money runs out before all those in level 5 have been paid. Out of the 9331 members 8584 (91.99%) will receive nothing because there is not enough money left for them after the higher levels have been paid. If it was shared evenly every member would lose $270 per year.

As an alternative if each lower level receives only 75% of the income of the level above there will still be 7819 (83.8%) receiving no money.

Of course you can reduce the payout, and so the profit of the higher members, but it will not change the result much there will still be many more people receiving nothing than those receiving payments.

Do the maths and you will find that in a 6 wide matix, once 4 levels have been filled, 83.3% of all members are in the bottom level where they are not yet earning. A further 13.9% are in the level above them and will be earning little if they are making a profit at all. In total, in this example, over 97% will be earning little or nothing and this will apply no matter how many members join. Calculations for any other matrix structure produce similar results although they improve slightly if the matrix is only 2 wide.

Not even Donald Trump’s presence can change the laws of mathematics.

“Also, Donald Trump does not own our company. He is a partner with our founders.”

Thank you for clarifying that. It does not really invalidate my point. Donald Trump is using MLM to make profit for himself. He is not a distributor he is a supplier of the product to the whole network which was the point I was making.

“Preventative health by comparison is so much less expensive, it isn’t even reasonable to compare the difference.”

I made no comparisons, I simply expressed my opinion that the products were overpriced and I hold that opinion regardless of the cost of any alternatives. The fact that it may be cheaper than the treatment does not automatically make it reasonably priced. As I understand it the “prevention” that is being offered is an ongoing cost, which over a person’s lifetime, will add to a very significant sum, especially for those who in fact never really need it.

“ps. Do you know that there are less than 10,000 active distributors right now and close to 40 Diamond directors??”

No I did not know that and I thank you for the information. It seems that Diamond Directorship must come when three lower levels are filled but payments must continue down to six levels. This was one of the items I was unable to verify on the website at the time so I had to assume that the payout level was also the qualifying level. Perhaps I should have talked about Diamond Directors on the maximum income level.

Once again it makes little difference in the end. Right now less than 0.5 percent of all members are qualified as Diamond Directors and that will never change significantly.

If we return to my original analysis of half the world population joining (assuming they all do join) then it is possible to appoint just over 12 million Diamond Directors. There will be over 2 billion people who are not and never will be Diamond Directors. There is nobody else left to recruit to raise them higher. Less than 0.5% can be Diamond Directors at any time.

“It might be wise to do more investigation before trying to be a calculator holding dream stealer.”

I did my investigation and while there were a few things of which I was not aware they make no significant difference to my calculations, comments or opinions. You may classify me as a dream stealer but that is only because, for well over 90% of the people who join MLM, it is and always will be only ever a dream.

My Challenge to the Donald Trump Network

June 30th, 2009

I received a promotion for this network and as it involved Donald Trump and network marketing I decided to investigate further.

It seems that Donald Trump has decided that network marketing can indeed lead to profits but before you see that as a thumbs up for MLM take a close look at his role in the venture. Donald Trump owns the MLM company. He has a range of products that he wishes to sell and it seems that he has chosen the network marketing option.

Never forget that Donald Trump will make a profit on every single product sold through the network. The network marketers who join will only make profits on the products sold through their particular network and that will be a very very small percentage of the total product sold. Donald Trump has endorsed network marketing as a tool to enable him to sell his products and personally make profits. He has not joined a network marketing company and he is not himself taking the role of an MLM distributor.

Initially I found detail to be rather sparse so contacted the person who promoted it to me and I was directed to a website that had a little more information although less than I would have liked to see.

Looking at the data provided it seems to be a classical MLM. That means that the best way to make money is to recruit new distributors. I could not find anywhere in the information I was given, data on how to earn by selling the product retail. There was mention of preferred and retail customers but nothing seems to be geared to assist distributors in their efforts to find and sell to these people. It may, of course, be there but it was not clear to me.

So my next task was to analyse the data and of course I have to make assumptions. The first assumption I have made is that everyone who joins will aim to be a Diamond Distributor and that is a reasonable assumption, that is where the greatest income is. The second assumption was that all matrices fill uniformly and of course that is an unlikely scenerio but it does not significantly detract from the results of my calculations.

Diamond members have to recruit 6 members and will be paid 6 levels deep. So to fully qualify as a Diamond Distributor you need a matrix of 55,987 members. So what we find is that for every Diamond Distributor there will be, on average, 55,986 members not earning that level of income. Of course some of them will be earning close to that level.

So now I looked at the bottom end of the matrix. Assuming that, at this time, none of level 6 had yet recruited anyone there will be 46,656 (83.33%) members earning no income and 7,776 (13.88%) earning income only from the first level. So over 97% of members will be earning little or no income at any given time.

Looking more deeply and making additional assumptions the picture does not improve. Assuming at most half the ppopulation could join the Trump network and I am referring to population anywhere. Given that at least half of any population will be filled by Children, retirees and those not interested in MLM I am sure this assumption is very much on the side of the Donald Trump Network.

By the time person 1 has filled their matrix there are at total of 55,986 people waiting to elevate themselves to Diamond Distributor. Of course some of those are already close but many still have a lot of recruiting to do. For every single one of those members to become Diamond Distributors over 2.6 billion must have joined. The verdict is clear. It is unlikely that the Donald Trump Network will have more than 50,000 Diamond Distributors world wide and most likely a lot less.

My verdict.

Like all MLM’s it seems to have overpriced products.

The compensation plan is very complex and difficult to understand.

I have not and will not either join or recommend the Donald Trump Network.

A big “selling point” is the rapid growth that will be experienced but there is no mention of the fact that rapid growth means rapidly increasing number of distributors chasing a rapidy diminishing number of prospects.

Donald Trump says “Success does not happen by accident…..”

I would say “For most people in the Donald Trump Network success will not happen”.

I invite the Donald Trump Network to show where my calculations are wrong and I invite them to regulalrly publish the statistics on what percentage of their membership are earning a reasonable income as well as the percentages that are earning little or nothing.

Letter to the US Attorney General

March 11th, 2009

Gentlemen,

I am prompted to communicate with you as I have seen a sample of the letters you are receiving in relation to ASD. I am not a member of that organisation having decided at the outset that its potential for success was questionable. I am still, by choice, on the mailing list of the member who tried to recruit me

I would firstly like to congratulate your office for having the courage to take action and that congratulation stands regardless of the final outcome in relation to ASD.

The legality or otherwise of ASD pales into insignicance beside the real problem. The internet abounds with Ponzis and doomed “business opportunities” and has done for years. Until now nobody has had the courage to stand up and address the issue. I am hopeful that your present actions signal a new attitude in the USA as it is from that country most of them originate.

I believe that unless it is addressed the problem will, in the end, dwarf the financial crisis of 2008. Of course it will not get the publicity because it will continue to be by stealth as it has over the last ten years or so. It will continue forever costing millions of people many millions of dollars every year. This spread will ensure no headlines are made but total world wide losses, in the end are likely to be greater than those of 2008.

I will be brief as I am aware you are busy. I receive dozens of “opportunities” daily and they all offer the chance for “everyone” to earn a substantial income by joining. On examination it is clear that the sole source of income of the organisation is the contribution of members (yes mostly they are buying a “product” but that does not change the reality). If the only source of income is from members and some of them earn more than they contribute then many others must receive less than they contribute, including nothing of course. This applies forever, recruiting more members simply shifts the problem down the line and magnifies the numbers who are losing. The promotion is a bare faced lie in these cases, usually “protected” by a carefully hidden income disclaimer clause.

At this time there is an even greater concern as since the crisis of 2008 there are many more people all over the world looking for alternative ways to increase or replace lost income and they are turning to the internet where they are most likely to end up in further strife. The promoters do not care – I have shown some how flawed their programmes are and they simply write me off as a waste of time and find others to sell to.

As an aside I would add that, in my opinion, these “opportunities” are worse than SPAM and are also a significant cause, if not the major cause, of the SPAM problem.

This is probably already too long, once I start on this topic I find it hard to stop so I will end here.

Finally thank you for taking the time to read this message and please, no matter what the outcome of ASD is, continue to take action against these Ponzis and doomed programmes for the sake of the citizens of the world. The rest of us are no less affected than the citizens of the USA. If I can provide you with any additional information please do not hesitate to contact me.

My best wishes

Ken Briggs

Some Money Saving Tips

March 1st, 2009

Money Saving Tips for this Week

Do not pay more than you need to for anything.

When you are on a website offering something that you are interested in, especially if it is a business related item rather than personal. Close the browser before making a purchase and see what happens. More and more are offering a discount option if you move on without making a purchase. I believe that you may then be getting close to a real value for the product or service. After all if that is the price they are prepared to sell and you are prepared to buy then real value has probably been established.

I use Mozilla so close that tab and can always re-open it. If you use a different method you can bookmark the site first or it can be located in your history file later.

I have found the same trend creeping in with One Time Offers. If you go to the next screen there is often an even better offer. If you right click on the “no thanks” link you can open it in a separate window or tab and see if it gets better while still having the original offer open.

Do not “buy” the bonuses.

Almost everything on sale on the internet comes with bonuses, usually “valued” at far more han the product you are considering purchasing. Do not get caught in the trap of buying the product because you like some of the bonuses but do not really want the product.

Often the bonuses are PLR products or in some way available free of charge anyway. Do a search for the bonuses you like and see if you can get what you want wthout buying things you do not want.

A problem is that often the bonuses require signing up to another site and so you have just increased the mail in your inbox. Those ones are usually aimed at upselling you to the full value of another product anyway and often provide information that is less valuable than the title and sales page suggest.

Another risk that can arise is that you end up with dozens or even hundreds of bonuses on your hard drive that you never get to do anything with and it becomes so many that the task of sorting through them becomes rather daunting and so is put off.

In My Mail

February 22nd, 2009

In my inbox this week there was a promtion for Rotated Income 4 U and it was one of the few “Great Opportunites” that I bothered to investigate more closely. I was intrigued by their claims that they were “The first and only fool proof matrix”.

They explain how they have overcome the major problems of matrices and encourage you to join with such statements as “Your matrix will fill!” and “How can you lose?” Of course hidden away in their terms is an income disclaimer notice which is the clause you and they actually agree to when you sign up.

It requires a one time payment of $20 and they pay out in total $15. If your 3X7 matrix fills (they hype it up as a certainty but hide the denial in the terms) you will earn $3423.00.

I have not bothered to show the impossibility of their claims for most members because quite simply it is an illegal Ponzi anyway.

I quote from Wikipedia – “”Ponzi scheme” is a widely known description of any scam that pays early investors returns from the investments of later investors.“

This programme has one source of income, individual member contributions and so top levels of the matrix get paid by the new entrants, fitting the definition perfectly.

The Internet abounds with these illegal or doomed schemes and authorities are happy to let us all be duped by them. I do not have time, desire or resources to research the entire Internet but based on the information that I receive daily well over 90% of all “opportunies” fall into these categories.

As authorities seem to have no interest in policing the Internet and applying existing laws it places a greater burden on the general public to protect themselves. We need to be well informed and capable of evaluating even the best disguised scam to ensure that we can avoid them. Apply some business basic thinking to evey opportunity, do due diligence and if in doubt stay out.

Selecting Opportunities in the Downturn

February 19th, 2009

The world as a whole is suffering in varying degrees from the current economic downturn. Hundreds of thousands of people have found themselves without a job and there will be many more before the crisis has ended. While I cannot offer a pancea for what ails the economy I can give some tips and suggestions that may help those searching for alternatives.

Many will and have turned to the internet where there is an abundance of “opportunities” on offer to help alieviate any individual’s difficulties. It is imperative that even more care is taken when evaluating the programmes that are being offered. While we have a job the losses incurred in making a bad choice can be sustainable but in difficult times the last thing we need is the added burden of money and time lost in a venture that cannot succeed.

My mail box is filled daily with programmes and opportunites that are doomed to fail in the long term for most who participate. I believe that the majority of those promoting these businesses are truly convinced they represent the chance to rise above the economic conditions. Unfortunately for so many it is simply not true.

There will be an increasing number of people joining programmes and so an upsurge in the promotional efforts that arrive in our inboxes. Due diligence is and always will be important but in difficult times it becomes even more vital even if the initial outlay is relatively small. Most businesses require ongoing payments and, of course, take time to produce results. If the programme is one that is doomed to fail there could be the loss of several regular payments and perhaps even more importantly the time spent promoting it. Clearly it is best to get it right first time.

So what is the answer?

When you find a promising opportunity do not just take the accept what is claimed. Indeed even if there is “proof” provided still do extensive due diligence before parting with even a token payment.

It is beyond the scope of this article to provide a comprehensive lesson in due diligence but here are some tips that are often not considered in due diligence that are well worth following:

Cut through the hype! – internet opportunities abound with hype and often exagerated promises. Look for reality.

Be cautious of “proof”. Mostly proof offered is about what one individual achieved and we are not that individual. I have even heard of situations where the individual was given access to some a list or was heavily mentored by their sponsor. How much real help is availabe to you and how successful is your helper already? How did they achieve whatever success they have had?

Many if not most promoters will be using the company literature which is usually worded to suggest that they personally have achieved the promised results. All too often they personally have experienced little success yet.

Read the FAQ and terms and conditions especailly looking for discrepancies and strange statements. A common situation is a promise of earnings prominently displayed on the web site and an income disclaimer burried in the terms and conditions. When you join you have agreed to the terms and conditions even if they have not been read which means you have agreed to the income disclaimer not the promise. They may say they are legal and not a Ponzi but what else would you expect them to say? Remember “self praise is no recommendation”.

Look at the structure and operations in detail and check the long term sustainability. The bulk of the opportunites I see do not have long term durability and are doomed to fail for over 90% of those who join regardless of what they do or how good they are.

Go to your favourite search engine and use the business name + complaints as the key words. You may be surprised at what you find.

Apply some business basic thinking and assess the promised income paid out against the funds the business will receive. This too can give some unexpected results.

Of course do all of the “normal” due diligence. Trust me time spent first doing due diligence is far more valuable than months spent learning the hard way that the opportunity does not deliver as promised.

Finally! If in doubt stay out!

Last week’s mail

February 2nd, 2009

Here are some of the highlights from my mailbox during the past week.

3900income.com

I quote from their website:

Here everyone receives $3900 monthly by sharing $6

I quote from their Dislcaimer:

EVERY EFFORT HAS BEEN MADE TO ACCURATELY REPRESENT THIS COMMUNITY AND IT’S POTENTIAL. EVEN THOUGH THIS INDUSTRY IS ONE OF THE FEW WHERE ONE CAN WRITE THEIR OWN CHECK IN TERMS OF EARNINGS, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT YOU WILL EARN ANY MONEY USING THE TECHNIQUES AND IDEAS IN THESE MATERIALS.

EXAMPLES IN THESE MATERIALS ARE NOT TO BE INTERPRETED AS A PROMISE OR GUARANTEE OF EARNINGS. EARNING POTENTIAL IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON THE PERSON USING OUR PRODUCT, IDEAS AND TECHNIQUES. WE DO NOT PURPORT THIS AS A “GET RICH SCHEME.”

Do the Maths yourself if the payment is $6 then it will need 650 payments for one person to earn $3900 and the rest, at this stage, earn nothing. (In fact they only share $5 of the $6 they receive).

It is impossible for everyone to earn $3900 per month from member only contributions of $6.

In fact in any given full matrix 80% of the members (3125) will be making $0 income and a further 16% (625) will be losing $1. So 3.97% (155) will make some money and .03% (1) will make the claimed amount. This result (percentage rates) will apply at any given time no matter where the matrix has gone.

The income making claim is completely false. It will NEVER be possible for “everyone” to make $3900 from the structure they are using.

Extremecashcoaching.com

Cost to join $547

Company keeps $ 97

Paid to three levels $450

They say their products are worth $3300. Really they Might be worth $97.

The remaining $450 is simply distributed through a pyramid.

In my view their training programme is grossly over-priced due to the pyramid they incorporate.